UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (US) ELECTIONS 2024.

The article was written on 15 Nov 2024. A week after the results of the elections, which was won by Trump, as assignment project for the social psychology class (MA Psy) . Posting it without any amendments (posted 4 April 2025)

    INTRODUCTION

     The Week, a renowned international magazine, of 8 Nov’24 screamed from the first page “A dark day for liberal America”. This headline pertained to Donald Trump, who won the 2024 US Presidential elections. He is the first US presidential candidate who is a convicted felon, convicted criminal, sexual abuser, tax evader and a compulsive liar. Many strongly believe that he is a dictator in the making. In the run up to the 2024 elections, Trump removed any misgiving about his intentions. He pronounced that he will get even with his enemies and political opponents. He would fill the judiciary and executive arm, which are by design supposed to be fiercely independent, with his loyalists. His campaign was full of hate and abuses, aimed at polarizing and dividing the society into ‘us and they.’ His utterances in election meetings were aimed at instigating his followers against immigrants. “These guys are taking our jobs,” “They ate our lunch”, “They are not even sparing our pets and eating them”, “Poisoning our blood”, “Christianity will have power”, ‘America has to be first’,”. Message was clear, ‘immigrants were stealing the rights of Americans.’ He also added that his opposition candidate (Kamala Harris of Democrats) will encourage illegal immigration which will destroy the country. He promised to deport all illegal immigrants from day-one of his Presidency. It was a chilling reminder of Hitler era. He convinced educated, simple, God-fearing citizens that US as a country was slipping away. It was under siege economically, culturally, and demographically. Kamal Harris, while talking about the mannerism of Trump and his dividing agenda said that, “Trump is an outlier and he does not represent America.” The election results showed that he not only represented what America is, but showed that Americans, at least majority, are like him. It appears that the new norm in US has changed and Trump and his philosophy is the new ‘normative.’ What did Trump do that appealed to the country which is by any standard one of the most advanced, liberal, and democratic nation.

                                                              AIM             

 The aim of the paper is to explore the Socio-Psychological factors behind the electoral victory of Donald Trump and attempt to explain the factors that ‘influenced’ the voters to bring to power one of the most controversial political figures in recent times. 

                SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY THEORIES IN ACTION 

    Some of the known and accepted theories pertaining to group behaviour in social setting, which can be applied to the recent elections are as follows. Social Identity Theory- This theory, developed by Henri Tajfel, says that people derive a part of their self-concept from the groups they belong to. Social identity groups provide purpose, self-worth, identity, and a feeling of belonging to the group. People, being social animals, have innate instincts to form a group or become part of some group. The stages involved in formation of this identity are:           - Social Categorization-This refers to the tendency of people to classify themselves and others into various social groups based on attributes like race, gender, nationality, political affiliation, or religion. This division comes naturally to human beings and is sort of innate. 

        Social Identification- Once people start seeing themselves as member of a particular group, they adopt to the identity of that group thereby aligning their values, behaviour, and norms with that of the group.

     Social Comparison- Evaluating oneself with others is also part of human nature. Here it goes one step further and individuals start comparing their group to others. This comparison is often biased in favour of one’s own group. This sets into motion a tussle/competition. It could be for resources, prestige, power, esteem or simply up-man ship. We all want to be seen better than others. Same is the case with the groups, of which the individual has become merged. 

    In-group (us) and Out-group (them)-The group with which an individual identifies become his group (In-group) and the other group/groups with which he does not identify becomes the out-group. Humans have natural inclination to view their group in positive light while displaying neutral or negative or even hostility towards other groups (out-group) Positive Distinctiveness-The tendency to view their own group as better or superior leads people to strive to be seen as different or distinct from other groups. This sets the ground fertile for favoritism, stereotyping and prejudice, intergroup conflicts to creep in which can turn into extreme forms like racism and genocide. Application-Donald Trump made the election look like a battle between in-group (Trump and his supporters) and out-group (Kamala Harris and her supporters). The out-group also included elites (who do not endorse Trump’s views), media (anti Trump), immigrants (especially Mexicans). Right through the campaign Trump used provoking slogans against the out-group creating a climate of threat and terror like ‘Mexico is intentionally sending criminals and rapists to America’. He referred immigrants to ‘blood thirsty animals’, ‘most violent people on earth’. He said that they are ruining the ‘fabric’ of the country and its culture. In one of the addresses towards the end of campaign he said that the migrants and the minority groups are ‘genetically predisposed to commit crimes. In one bizarre statement he said that ‘Haitian immigrants in Ohio are eating your (American people’s) pets.’ He created a feeling of dooms day for Americans through his xenophobic and racist rhetoric against a ‘common and identifiable enemy’ (migrants and other minorities). He further increased the threat level by warning that migrants have already invaded and are destroying the country. And his opponent Kamala Harris, who is a daughter of Jamaican and Indian immigrants, is encouraging these immigrants. He repeatedly bashed Kamal Harris as ‘dumb’, questioned his racial identity and called her ‘DEI’ candidate (a derogatory term that refers to quotas or targets for hiring racial and ethnic minorities. It is something like ‘reservation’ in India). Thus, Trump effectively used fear to unite people into his group. ‘Terror Management Theory’ is a theory developed by Sheldon Solomon, Jeff Greenberg, and Tom Pyszczynski. It suggests that when people are faced with mortality issues, they become more likely to support charismatic leaders who promise security and stability. Trump exaggerated the threat from immigration, terrorism, and inflation to paint a picture that there was an existential threat. This ‘manufactured’ threat which was reinforced through social media and ground-based workers became the core part of the campaign. On the parallel he put himself and his group on high moral ground projecting that they were the ‘Real Americans’ who wants to make ‘make America Great Again’ and they were ‘Bringing back Christianity.’ He gave solutions which ‘only he could implement’ like, ‘Building the wall’, ‘Sending back all illegal migrants back’, ‘Starting the mass deporting, a level never ever seen earlier from day-one of his Presidency’. This ‘situation’ (Situationism) prevailing too helped Trump in creating discontent against the ruling Democrats (Kamal Harris’s party). There was concern about inflation amongst citizens as fuel, grocery, and rent (house) had become very high. This concern of the people was exploited by Trump and his team projecting that it was all due to mismanagement by the Democrats. For reviving economy, he laid out a simple plan. Increase tariffs on all imports, arguing that this would bring manufacturing jobs back to the US which will effectively lower the inflation and reduce the cost of living for American Families. This would also remove the problem of unemployment, another serious concern of the people. Economists do not agree to his plan as other countries too would raise tariffs for US products leading to a dangerous trade war which would escalate the prices of all commodities. Moreover, a close look at the economy would indicate that the US economy is doing well. India Today 18 Nov 2024 writes, “The irony is that America’s macroeconomic indices are the envy of the developed world, with an annualised real GDP growth rate of 3.5 percent in 2021-2023, one of the lowest unemployment figures of recent times, and inflation cooling from the pandemic peak of 9 percent in 2022 to just over 3 percent. Yet, the electorate voted against Harris.” A term often used in psychology is ‘Framing effect.’ This term was developed by Erving Goffman and it explains that how an issue is presented/framed, influences how people perceive it. Trump’s powerful but simplistic solutions appealed to them. For immigration problem he will ‘build the wall’ and ‘drain the swamp.’ For economy he will raise tariffs for all imports. His deportation plan would solve the problem of housing as the immigrants too, compete for houses. The solutions he showed appeared to be straight forward which could be easily grasped by his audience as people do not have time, inclination, or expertise to evaluate any issue holistically. The issues were artistically curated and framed and showcased through media as per the Trump’s agenda. Elon Musk, a business man, was with Trump and assisted him with huge donations as well as deploying his social media app X (earlier called Twitter) to further Trump’s appeal. Thus, we see that Trump was able to take advantage of concerns of people regarding immigrants, economy, unemployment, and security to create a climate of existential threat for American people. He offered simple solutions (though, flawed as per experts) which appealed to people. This attracted people to become part of the group that represented Trump. Yet another theory which can explain the behaviour is the ‘Social Dominance Theory.’ Social Dominance Theory- It was developed by Jim Sidanius and Felicia Pratto. It argues that societies are structured into hierarchies, and individuals differ in their preferences for social dominance. Those with high social dominance orientation (SDO) are more likely to support policies that maintain hierarchical social structures. Trumps rhetoric around anti-immigration theories and ‘America First’ and emphasis on National Strength appealed to voters with high SDO. These voters were attracted to Trump as his campaign promised to reassert America’s dominance and protecting the interests of in-group (native-born Americans) over outsiders. Application-It is generally believed that Obama’s victory as President of US had not gone well with the extreme right. The paper “White supremacy, white counter-revolutionary politics, and rise of Donald Trump” by Joshua says that Trump strongly believes in his ‘Birtherism claims’ and had aggressively opposed Obama’s candidature saying that President was not a US citizen or eligible for Presidency. Obama’s win had sent a shock wave into the political class. He sees Trump’s rise to political power in the context of a white counter-revolutionary laced into historical trajectories of anti-black racism. US with all its hyperbole regarding freedom, liberty, equality and democracy remains a deeply divided society with regards to Afro-American (Blacks). For a very long time, not in too distant future, the African people were brought in to work as slaves. Many hardliners still find it hard to eject the prejudice against blacks. Similarly, lot of people still view ‘women’ not ideally suited to powerful positions. Kamala Harris had to fight against this deep-rooted prejudice against blacks and women. In addition, she being woman too was a hinderance. American people, like Trump believe in the supremacy of ‘male white men.’ This was exploited to hilt by Trump. He brought up this issue many times and probably persuaded people to see Kamal Harris through this prejudice- ‘An Immigrant Black-Women’. The Authoritarian personality of Trump appealed to the average citizen as Authoritarianism thrives in an atmosphere of hate and fear which was created by Trump and his supporters by blowing up the problems associated with economy, immigrants, and lack of jobs. In such situations people prefer a strong leader who could defy all norms and even political correctness. Trump apparently was perceived as someone who defied political correctness, liberal elites, and mainstream institutions. By showing himself as a defiant outsider who was fighting against establishment, Trump appealed to those who felt that their freedoms were being restricted by cultural or political norms. The phenomenon is akin to the Heroes of Bollywood or Hollywood who defies all odds to fight against the established system and come out victor. People love those heroes for their acts even when they are aware that it is all illusion, a cinematic trick. In this atmosphere of intense hatred and fear people forgot all the wrongs that Trump has done as also the fact that he could turn into a dictator. Cognitive dissonance, refers to the discomfort people feel when confronted with information that contradicts their beliefs. In such cases they often dismiss conflicting information or rationalize their choices. Most found easy to dismiss allegations against Trump. Despite his polarising actions and statements. The opposition call-out about the shady past of Trump and his autocratic manner did not carry any meaning for his supporters. Thus, totally mesmerized with Trump’s personality his supporters succumbed to confirmation bias. They only accepted information that confirmed to their pre-existing beliefs which aligned with the propaganda spread by Trump. 

CRITICAL EVALUATION

 Trump was voted to power in 2016 and worked as president till 2020 during which he faced impeachment twice. His tenure was controversial, riddled with many confrontations with his own team. Gen. Mark Milley, the country’s top military commander during the last two years of Trump’s presidency considered Trump as a “fascist to the core.” Many former generals, admirals, diplomats, intelligence officers and security strategists have publicly or privately accused Trump of being a liar who lacks basic knowledge about the world and represents a danger to the democracy (The New York Times date 30 Oct 2024). He however was defeated in the 2020 by Joe Biden but refused to accept the results and instigated his fans to attack the Parliament which was seen as an assault on democracy and an attempt to overthrow a legitimate Government. Gen. Mark Milley had refused Trump’s orders to deploy the Military during this attack. Till date Trump maintain that 2020 elections were stolen from him. Trump’s mental health has been the cause of much anxiety for mental health professionals. Because, as the President of US, the lone Super power of the world, he commands the most lethal arsenal of nuclear armaments and his actions would affect almost every country in the world. The book “The dangerous case of Donald Trump: 27 Psychiatrists and Mental health Experts Assess a President” by Bandy Lee, which arose out of a conference held on Apr20, 2017 at Yale University raises this issue. It consists of essays by mental health professionals who have studied the public pronouncements and behaviour of Donald Trump. The authors describe Trump as hedonistic, narcissistic, bullying, dehumanizing, lying, misogynistic, paranoid, racist, self-aggrandizing, entitled, exploiting, empathy-impaired, un delusional, likely senile and overtly sadist. Since the publication of the book hundreds of other mental health professionals have expressed the same opinion. Many mental health professionals have said the Trump is showing signs of ‘dementia.’ In the runup to the elections he was aware of the ‘dictator’ label and openly bragged about it. His campaign was self-aggrandizing where he repeatedly portrayed himself as a person who is perfect and knows everything. He had simple solutions for all the things that only he could accomplish. He would speak to Putin and would stop the war within 24 hours. Similarly, he has other simple plans for all the problems of Americans. Housing problem will be solved by deporting all non-documented immigrants. He has repeatedly promised, in his election speeches, that from day-one he will carry out a mass deportation of undocumented immigrants. He forgets that under US law such people can only be deported by following the legal process which can take a very long time. Considering that there are an estimated of 10.5 million to 11 million such immigrants, the government just does not have infrastructure to complete even a fraction of deportation. Besides there would be significant legal, logistics, economic, legal, and political repercussions. It might lead to civil unrest and cripple the economy as many of these immigrants work in agriculture, construction and hospitality sectors and provide cheap labour. These immigrants have been part of the US for a long time and have merged with the local population. Similarly, he boasted that he will stop Russia -Ukraine war in 24 hours of being elected as President (mark the words elected and not when he becomes the President). The ground for his hyper confidence is that Putin is his good friend. Such irresponsible utterances on sensitive issues have forced many International Affairs experts and Economists to say that he just has no understanding of these subjects. A clear-cut case of Dunning Kruger effect, if there was any. There is no doubt that much of Trumps life has been devoted to real estate and show business. He has very less exposure to governance of a country. Still the moot point remains. What do people see in him or why they are not able to see real Trump. An article in The Atlantic dwells into the phenomena that binds the trump fans. Trump supporters catastrophize the threats of the LEFT (Opposition). They (fans) agree and believe Trump when he says that “America dies” if the opposition is permitted to come into power. They fear desperation and impending doom. For them the threat is existential and Nation demand all to stand with Trump. Anything less would be a betrayal of the nation. They are petrified and fearful. Aldous Huxley once said, “Fear casts out love. And not only love. Fear also casts out intelligence, casts out goodness, casts out all thought of beauty and truth.” In this make believe ‘existential crisis’ the fans see Trump as a messiah, a super-man who only can lead them to their dreams of prosperity. He has been able to create a cult, with his followers seeing him as a demi God who can do no wrong. It is like the blind followers of self-styled Gurus in India. Asaram a self-styled Indian Guru is in jail for rape and murder. He still commands unbridled faith of his followers. For them Guruji cannot do anything wrong. An article “Trumps authoritarian social movement A social psychology analysis” by Jeffrey S Victor says that Trump supporters are attracted to his Authoritarian life style. He calls it quasi-religious authoritarian social movement. Trump mobilised a large section of people who has traditionally never voted for the Republicans like Blacks and Latinos. They were lured by Trump’s advocacy of ‘make Christianity great again.’ He advocated for restoration of Christian values in American society drawing in many Blacks and Latinos who follow the same religion. 

                    IMPACT ON SOCIETY 

The rise of Trump is bad news for America as well as the society. He has steeply divided and polarised the people. The division was fuelled not only the policies and style of governance but it also included class, race, and religious divide. He was caustic against immigrants, forgetting that every citizen of US had been a migrant and the US was built up by migrants. Many of the long-held virtues and morals of public life has been thrown out into dust bin by Trump by appealing to the selfish and carnal desires of the population. His personal life has been far from ‘role model’. A leader steeped into corruption, lies and scandals does not bode well for any society. While there have been people in public life who did not follow very high moral standards- they though were discreet about it. Trump glorifies his transgressions with law (he once said he could evade taxes as he is smart). He has left a deep divide amongst people by his ‘America first’ policies and his destructive attitudes towards immigrants. Such attitudes can fuel hyper Nationalism like that of Hitler. He has declared that he will appoint his ‘loyalist’ in the Government thereby threatening the built-in checks and balances in the functioning of the State. With these checks removed, he can become an autocrat/ dictator like Hitler. His rise also sets into motion a dangerous precedence of undermining competency. He has already named multiple people who have very limited exposure for the posts they are being recommended for. Most of these people are also having very extreme views. As per ‘The Washington Post’ of 14th Nov, Trump announced three nominees for major security roles, each of whom is ideologically extreme and lacks necessary experience. This could be dangerous for any country. 

REFLECTIONS

 An attempt has been made to bring out facts around Donald Trump and the modus operandi of his campaign as factually as possible. However own biases cannot be ruled out. At times the narrative appears to become aggressively critical of Trump. It is done purposely as India faces the same situation. We appear to be following a path which is not too different from the one that was in full display in the recent US elections. US elections should serve as a warning to us to keep away from such divisive leaders and voters. The trajectory of Trump journey need to watched carefully to see when and how much the US will have to pay for their choice.

 “Since Plato’s Republic 2300 years ago, philosophers have understood the process by which demagogues come to power in free and fair elections, only to overthrow democracy and establish tyrannical rule. The process is straightforward, and we have now just watched it play out”-Jason Stanley, Professor of Philosophy at Yale University (In reply to query ‘How could Trump win’ on 07 Nov 2024)