DEBRIS OF IAF AN-32 AIRCRAFT LOCATED AFTER 7 YEARS

 On 13 Jan 2024 the news papers reported that The National Institute of Ocean Technology (NIOT) have taken some images by autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) in the Bay of Bengal which resembles the debris of an An-32 aircraft. It was located at a distance of 140 nautical miles (260km) from the Chennai coast at a depth of around 3400 mts. 

    It was on 22 Jul 2016 when an IAF AN-32 took off from Chennai (Tambaram) at 0831 hrs. with 29 personnel for Port Blair. The aircraft AUW was 27tonnes which is the maximum permitted. The aircraft had filed for flight level 230 (23000feet) but at 0854 hrs the crew  requested for change of level to 210 (21000 feet). It reached FL210 at 0858 hrs. At 0905 hrs the crew requested a right deviation by 10 miles due to weather. However the aircraft deviated only 3 miles. The weather pattern and radar report suggest  that the aircraft would have been in severe icing for about 24 minutes after it had climbed through FL180. From the analysis of radar picture the final trajectory of the aircraft indicates a yaw to the left by 60 degrees with an increase in speed to 242 kts (450 km) and high ROD of 9375 feet/min at 0913:40 IST. The blip then vanished from the radar at 0913:43 IST. It was estimated that the aircraft lost radar contact about 280km east of Chennai.

    The debris has been located at roughly same place where the AN-32 was reported missing. Since there is no recorded history of any other missing aircraft in the area there is thus a very probability that the debris found may be of the unfortunate AN-32 which went missing almost 7 years back.

    Many obvious questions arise . How and when will they retrieve the debris? Will it be possible to get insight into what transpired in those last moments? Will the CVR and FDR be recovered and if yes will it have data intact?  Lets wait if there is more information coming up. 

    I had followed the developments of the missing aircraft as I too operated in the same Sqn from 2003 to 2005 and had undertaken such flights multiple times. To me it appeared to be a case of weather induced upset/ stall followed by upset. The aircraft was in severe icing and performance drops significantly in icing conditions. However other probabilities like material failure or technical failure can not be ruled out. It is good that the debris have been located as it sets to rest the fate of the 29 people who were in the aircraft. 

    Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 continues to defy search to date. Multiple scenarios like hijacking, crew involvement, pilot suicide and many disappearance theories including involvement of aliens keeps emerging . The aircraft went missing on 08 Mar 2014. The authorities and relatives of the deceased people would be hoping for a discovery like that of AN-32 and closure of the fate of the 227 passengers and 12 crew.

    Yet another aircraft that comes to mind is the Air France 447. It bears lot of semblance to the unfortunate An-32 aircraft. It also disappeared on 01  June 2009 while cruising at flight level 350 over the Atlantic Ocean while going to Paris from Rio de Janeiro. It also encountered weather and severe snow and hail which froze the pitot head giving out erroneous airspeed indications. The pilot flying was young and not very experienced ( the captain was taking rest in the bunk bed). He misinterpreted the warning signals and caused upset from which recovery was not possible. The aircraft crashed into the ocean. Few parts of the aircraft and bodies of passengers were found but the main wreckage was located almost two years after the disappearance. The final resting place of 447 was discovered on 03 April 2011 at a depth of 3980 meters. The An-32 wreckage too is likely to be in similar depth.

    With this finding of An-32 , only one more An-32 of IAF remains untraceable . The aircraft took off from Muscat for Jamnagar on 25th Mar 1986 but never reached its destination. The last contact with the aircraft was 1 hour and 18 minutes after take off , none of the 7 occupants were ever heard again. No further information is available of that flight though many theories have been propounded like it could have been hit by a misfired missile. 

UPDATE as on 15 Jan 2024. The debris of the ill fated aircraft were picked up  by Autonomous Under Water Vehicle which was exploring the sea bed for minerals. It was an accidental discovery. The images when analyzed resembled an aircraft. The images were taken from a distance of 30 mts and 5 mts from the sea bed. The debris is dispersed in an area of 4km by 4 km at a depth of 3.4 to 4 km. It will be a task to retrieve the debris. The chances of this discovery adding anything to the reasons of crash are remote as even if the FDR and CVR are found they would not have valid data due to the long exposure to the sea water at such depths. The only consolation continues to be that the resting place for the ill fated passengers have been located.